contrary cents-betting

Chicago Bears vs San Fransisco 49ers

2008-08-20T10:11:00.000-07:00

The Chicago Bears just announced this past Monday that their starting quarterback will be Kyle Orten this season and not Rex Grossman.

Game-day: 8/21/2008

Kick-off: 9:00 pm est.

The move, if anything, signals that the Chicago Bears are ready to move on from their Super Bowl winning attempt in 2007.

Grossman was absolutely horrid in that game. He was even worse in the 2007 – 2008 season. The problem with Grossman has always been a mental one. He has the ability, but mentally the guy just can’t get it together. How much NFL betting dollars has this man burned?

Well, the Bears decided that it’s now Kyle Orten’s turn. With the release of Cedric Benson, who was a mess to begin with, the Bears have put themselves into a very difficult situation on offense. They will have a new quarterback under center in Orten, will start a rookie running back in Matt Forte, and will attempt to turn Devin Hester into a wide receiver.

Without Bernard Berrian, Hester’s development as an every down guy is essential to the Bears’ success. He’s the only wide receiver on the Bears’ roster that can really stretch the field. Of course, Orten will have to throw him a ball that he can run under. Yeah, that might not happen.

The San Francisco 49’ers have a starting quarterback in former number one draft pick Alex Smith. He just hasn’t been all that great so far in the NFL. Sometimes quarterbacks like Smith, who appears to have all of the tools and is a smart guy, are the end products of a terrible system.

Online betting fans need to remember who the 49’ers hired this season before writing Smith off. Who did San Francisco hire to turn Smith into an All-Pro, or at least mistake free, quarterback? Mike Martz. Martz likes to spread the field ala Urban Meyer when he coached Smith at Utah. This might be a great thing for Smith. It will certainly test my theory that he’s a smart guy, right?

Here are the online sportsbook betting odds for this game:

San Francisco 49’ers + 3 Ev O 37 - 110

Chicago Bears - 3 - 120 U 37 - 110

The San Francisco 49’ers put up only 6 points versus Oakland in their first pre-season game of the year. Then, they put up 34 points versus the Green Bay Packers, on the road, in their second pre-season game of the year.

I like them to be closer to the 34 points they put up against the Green Bay Packers in this game versus the Chicago Bears. The 49’ers will play their starters for at least a half in this game. They need to get their offensive schemes down as Martz’s system can be absolutely intimidating to a quarterback.

The Bears will want to rest their defense. I hope that Lovie Smith realizes that his defense got tired towards the end of last season. The Bears’ defense is small and fast. They are also a veteran unit which means Lovie shouldn’t have to put too much work into these guys during the pre-season in order to get them ready for the regular season.

I like the 49’ers and the points in this game. That’s the online wager that I will be making - - on the San Francisco 49’ers + 3 at even money in this game. Here's a my friend Jay's opinion on this game. Other Pre Season Betting Tips

UFC 68

2007-02-06T14:38:00.000-08:00

With UFC 67 in the books, its time to focus on the betting action for UFC 68. Matt Hughes and Rich Franklin will both be on the card, but the headliners for UFC 68 will be Tim Silvia against Randy Couture for the Ultimate Fighting Heavyweight Championship. UFC Odds have been posted already. Check out zewkey.com for all the UFC betting odds and info.

ufc talk

2007-02-01T09:19:00.000-08:00

i found a good Q and A about the LHW division in the ufc today at mmaontap

there is so much talent in that division, it should bring lots of entertainment for several year.

check out zewkey for UFC 67 betting odds/info and a current Travis Lutter interview as he prepares to fight Anderson Silva.

UFC 67 Betting - Ultimate Fighting Championship Betting at BetUS Sportsbook

2007-01-24T20:07:00.000-08:00

UFC 67 Betting - Ultimate Fighting Championship Betting at BetUS Sportsbook

Check zewkey.com for UFC 67 Odds and Analysis

UFC 67- Ultimate Fighting Betting

2007-01-22T20:42:00.000-08:00

Ultimate Fighting Championship 67 is coming up Feb. 3, don't miss out on the online betting. zewkey.com will have UFC odds and analysis on all the MMA action.

UFC 67: ALL OR NOTHING features the championship middleweight bout between Anderson “The Spider” Silva and Travis Lutter. After UFC 66 GSP was injured but UFC main man Dana White came thru by adding MMA stars Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic and Quinton “Rampage” Jackson. Stick to zewkey for all the current UFC odds and analysis

Saints vs Bears Free Pick

2007-01-21T09:05:00.000-08:00

Free Picks

Featuring expert picks and forecasting, news and betting strategies. Our experts weigh in on our feature games, picks of the week and all major sporting events including NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL. Get the straight goods from the pro’s that know. Check out zewkey.com

NFL Betting - Playoff Preview - Saints vs Bears
By Ringo Dalewood

New Orleans Saints (10-6) vs. Chicago Bears (13-3)
Sunday, January 21st --- Soldier Field, Chicago --- 3:00pm EST
Opening Line: Bears -3 (44)

Preview
The Saints’ win grounded the soaring Philadelphia Eagles in the Superdome last weekend, capturing a much-needed playoff victory for the city of New Orleans. They have been the center of unlimited, and well-worthy, praise for being the best offense in the NFL and America’s (new) Team. Now they leave the comfort of the Superdome and prepare to battle the best of the NFC.

Saints Offense vs. Bears Defense
The Saints have the most productive offense in the NFL, and can play in any number of styles. They can dazzle you with the finesse of Reggie Bush, flash speed with Marques Colston or hammer you in the nose with Deuce McAllister. But the Bears defense is simply due for a big game, and there’s no bigger stage than the NFC Championship.

The Saints have two of the best running-backs in the league in Reggie and Deuce. For the Bears, it will come down to the play of defensive tackles Tank Johnson and Ian Scott. These two must shut down the interior and pave way for Brian Urlacher to shut down the run in the backfield. Last week Deuce had his way with Jeremiah Trotter of the Eagles. He will not have an advantage against Urlacher.

Reggie is a different story because of his speed and versatility as a receiver. Sean Peyton has successfully used Reggie in the latter part of the season, and Reggie is a difficult matchup for the Bears. Bush can, however, be slowed by teams that love to gang tackle, and the Bears simply love swarming the ball.

The Bears have experience at corner with Tillman and Vashar, and they will have the edge against the Saints receivers. Marques Colston had an outstanding rookie campaign, as did Devery Henderson. But they will be hard pressed to expose Tillman and Vashar, who play mistake-free on defense and won’t bite on Brees’ pump fakes. Those fakes are where he makes his big plays.

Look for the Saints come out with different styles of play each drive to confuse the Bears. If the Bears fail to show up prepared against this versatile offense, then the Saints will put up points fast.

Bears Offense vs. Saints Defense
The Bears will run Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson until both have nothing left in the tank. The key to beating the Saints is establishing a rushing game that forces them to pull their safeties in to the box, exposing their corners in one-on-one coverage. When this happens, the Saints will be in big trouble.

Forget what you have been told, have heard, or think, about Rex Grossman. If there is one thing he does well, it’s throw the deep ball to Bernard Berrien. Grossman will be looking for #22, cornerback Fred Thomas, who gave up a number of big plays against the Eagles. Lovie Smith will call on Grossman to manage the game, making short passes and occasionally going long very to Berrien, their big play speed freak.

The Saints are vulnerable on defense, which often gets overshadowed because their offense puts so many points on the board. The truth is that they allow 128.9 yards per game on the ground, so Jones and Benson will have an extended workload on Sunday. Their corners are weak and lack experience, which could kill them if Grossman gets firing early on.

Look for Desmond Clark to be their main red-zone target, as his speed will be a matchup nightmare for the Saints. The fact of the matter is that nobody should be sold on the Saints defense. And the Bears, at times, have been able to blow-up the scoreboard with their offense.

Expect the Bears to keep it simple. Run the ball as much as possible, allowing Rex Grossman to expose man-on-man coverage and attacking the Saints’ vulnerable secondary.

Trends to Note
-New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
-New Orleans is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
-Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
-The total has gone OVER in 9 of Chicago's last 10 games at home

Final Verdict
All the emotions, energy and excitement that the Saints were feeding off of last week in the Superdome are simply gone. It’s in New Orleans with their fan base. Chicago is about as unfriendly as it comes, and, with the freezing weather, the explosive offense of the Saints will cool off.

If you are looking for emotion, then look to the Bears, who have had tremendous success at home. Do you have any idea how rabid Chicago will be with their team one step closer to the Super Bowl? The same emotion that New Orleans was swelling with last week will be at Soldier field, but it will be in favor of the Bears.

The Bears can slug it out and chase you on the scoreboard. The Saints won’t be able to power up their offense in the cold weather, and if this becomes a slugfest, then the Saints simply can’t hope to match the Bears’ grit and tenacity.

The Cinderella story ends in Chicago for the Saints. They gave their team a playoff win at home, the greatest gift the city has received in the wake of Katrina. Now the Bears need to give their city what it has craved for years – a Super Bowl.

New Orleans – 27

Jan 21 2007 3:00PMSpreadMoneylineOver/Under

New Orleans Saints3-12512543-110

Chicago Bears-3-125-14543-110

Favorite:Chicago Bears

NFL Conference Championships

2007-01-17T13:25:00.000-08:00

Here are the current line on the NFL playoffs this week. Winners go to the superbowl. Superbowl Odds are posted below.

New Orleans Saints +3
Chicago Bears -3

New England Patriots +3
Indianapolis Colts -3

Reggie Bush, Rex Grossman, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady this should be good stuff for online betting.

Try out www.Zewkey.com

Super Bowl Odds

2007-01-15T07:21:00.000-08:00

Current odds for Super Bowl at Sportsbook.com

What a week we have coming up, Tom Brady goes up against Peyton Manning and da Bears Defense gets a shot at Reggie Bush, Duece, Brees and Colston.

Indianapolis Colts 8-5

New England Patriots 9-4

Chicago Bears 7-2

New Orleans Saints 9-2

2007 Early Super Bowl Line

AFC -6.5
NFC +6.5

Please visit Zewkey.com

IFL Ring Girl

2007-01-12T20:54:00.001-08:00

More IFL info at Zewkey.com

Current Super Bowl Odds

2007-01-12T07:30:00.002-08:00

Here are the current odds to win the Super Bowl at Sportsbook.com
\Join www.sportsbook.com now and receive a generous sign up bonus.

Take a look at Zewkey.com


Indianapolis Colts	7-1

New England Patriots	8-1

San Diego Chargers	11-4

Seattle Seahawks	25-1

Chicago Bears	5-1

Philadelphia Eagles	10-1

Baltimore Ravens	7-2

New Orleans Saints	7-1

Fantasy Matchups Divisional Playoffs

2007-01-11T07:43:00.000-08:00

Here they are at Pinnacle (please scoll down to see the previous post), I will be happy to break them down if you will post a comment. Give Zewkey.com a look.

Sat 1/13	Peyton Manning (IND) vs. Jeff Garcia (PHI)
01:30 PM	101 Peyton Manning (IND)	-120
	102 Jeff Garcia (PHI)	+104
Sat 1/13	Brian Westbrook (PHI) vs. Jamal Lewis (BAL)
01:30 PM	107 Brian Westbrook (PHI)	-116
	108 Jamal Lewis (BAL)	+100
Sat 1/13	Shaun Alexander (SEA) vs. Thomas Jones (CHI)
10:00 AM	109 Shaun Alexander (SEA)	-126
	110 Thomas Jones (CHI)	+110
Sun 1/14	Tom Brady (NE) vs. Matt Hasselbeck (SEA)
10:00 AM	103 Tom Brady (NE)	-134
	104 Matt Hasselbeck (SEA)	+118
Sun 1/14	Philip Rivers (SD) vs. Rex Grossman (CHI)
10:00 AM	105 Philip Rivers (SD)	-130
	106 Rex Grossman (CHI)	+114

A Sad Day...

2007-01-11T07:05:00.000-08:00

Try Zewkey.com

Effective Immediately...

Man, the US Congress sucks, I will be voicing my opinion. Yes, Pinnacle is not the only option, but they are a good outfit.

"Home of the free", my ass. I have always been a Libertarian and I vote every election. I write my representatives on occasion, but the Poker ban really pissed me off. Senate Leader, Frist, SNUCK it through by attaching it on the end of a Security bill. No vote on it in the Senate, because they were too chicken shit to put the names on record. Then the authorities start arresting company executives as they enter the US, companies operating legally in Europe!!!

Legislating morality is crazy. Some Senator thinks my entertainment (betting on football) is ILLEGAL, but subsidizes tobacco companies that are killing people. Go figure...

Please visit Zewkey.com the forum is available and comments are welcome.

Cowboys Let Mike Zimmer go to Falcons

2007-01-10T07:10:00.000-08:00

Remember this guy. NFL Coach of the Year was a Dallas assistant last year. Now Mike Zimmer, the other good assistant, is walking to Atl. What is going on in Jerry's head? Either one of these two guys would be fired up about building a contender over the next ten years, but no, we've got to have Bill "I don't know if I have enough energy for another year" Parcells. Give me a break. Maybe Jerry has Cowher ready to go for when the Tuna finally quits, who knows? Even so, my choice would be Zim, a Cowboy lifer, over a "been there, done that" Cowher. He's the same guy as the aged down Parcells.

Wild Card Week Result

2007-01-08T07:33:00.000-08:00

Hell yeah! Plax comes thru.

Good-bye to Tiki. He was a good player, but everyone is making as if he was one of the great running backs in NFL history. He had a couple good seasons. Fumbled a zillion times until a few years ago. Yesterday was his second 100 yd playoff game. Great RBs do that in one season. I will take Corey Dillon, Westy, SA, LT, or Duece over Tiki. Oh well, I never figured him right from a fantasy perspective, always wrong.

Tonite is the big college game. I really don't follow college much, so if anyone has an opinion post it.

WIN: Plax (16 pts) +116 over R. Wayne (8 pts)

Wild Card Weekend Update

2007-01-07T09:30:00.000-08:00

C'mon Plax, I need a TD today. What a crazy game last nite. How do you figure that Indy/KC game?

BetUS has a matchup for today's game.

Chad Pennington; Leon Washington; Laveranues Coles +130

Tom Brady; Laurence Maroney; Reche Caldwell -170

Scoring system:1 point for every 5 passing yards, 1 point for each 5 rushing yards,1 point for each 5 receiving yards, 25 points for each touchdown, -25 points for each fumble (lost/not lost) -25 points for each interception

Here's the projections if you're interested.

The Patriots project out a 91 pts according to the BetUS scoring. The Jets project 59 pts, thats about a 30% advantage for New England.

Wild Card Weekend Update

2007-01-06T05:45:00.000-08:00

Not much movement in the lines. Here's yesterday's breakdown of the Wild Card Week matchups at Pinnacle

BET: Plax +116.

BetUS has some Matchups available that are grouped.

Peyton Manning +140

Eli Manning +300

Matt Hasselbeck +300

Tom Brady +220

Scoring system: 1 point for every 5 passing yards; 1 point for every rushing yard; 25 points for every touchdown; -25 points for every interception; -5 points for every sack.

They are listed in the future/prop label.

BetUS has team matchups that make watching the games a little more interesting.

Fantasy Matchups Wild Card Weekend

2007-01-05T07:59:00.000-08:00

Holy Smokes!!! Look at the new Fantasy Matchup Banner, I'm speechless.

The scoring system of 1 point for every 50 passing yards, 1 point for every 20 rushing yards, 1 point for every 20 receiving yards, 6 points for every touchdown, 2 points for every 2 point conversion, -2 points for every fumble lost and -2 points for every interception will be used.

TDs rule at Pinnacle.

Friday's update to my original analysis.

Hasselbeck projects out to have a slight advantage over Romo in TD passes (1.7 to 1.4), everything else is even. I like Hass. I hopefully of the odds falling on him.

Garcia has an edge in both yardage and TD passes (1.8 to 1.5) over Brady. I think both teams win easily, but the Jets should hold the score down. Everything points to Garcia.

Marvin and TO is an even matchup, it will be a toss up. If a good price is offered either way I will take it. TO opened at +116 and I missed out, oh well, we'll see what happens later today and in the morning.

Wayne and Plax are projecting even in both yards and TDs. I'm changing my opinion on this one and taking Plax at +116. Its a good price for such an even matchup. The big risk is if NY doesn't even show up. Burress will be a main weapon if the Giants make a game of it.

Tiki (.5 TDs) has a significant disadvantage to Westy (1 TD) in fantasy value for this game. I like the underdogs, but Tiki needs to get to +130 for me to consider it. Westy is a solid favorite here

Fantasy Football Matchups Playoffs Rd 1

2007-01-04T07:26:00.000-08:00

Fantasy Matchups are up for NFL Wild Card Weekend at Pinnacle. I will get back after lunch with some analysis of each matchup. As much as I hate him, TO at +116 looks pretty good. I need to get some wins after last week.

	1 Tony Romo (DAL)	+110
	2 Matt Hasselbeck (SEA)	-126

	3 Jeff Garcia (PHI)	-116
	4 Tom Brady (NE)	+100

	5 Marvin Harrison (IND)	-132
	6 Terrell Owens (DAL)	+116

	7 Reggie Wayne (IND)	-128
	8 Plaxico Burress (NYG)	+112

	9 Tiki Barber (NYG)	+108
	10 Brian Westbrook (PHI)	-124

The scoring system of 1 point for every 50 passing yards, 1 point for every 20 rushing yards, 1 point for every 20 receiving yards, 6 points for every touchdown, 2 points for every 2 point conversion, -2 points for every fumble lost and -2 points for every interception will be used.

TDs rule at Pinnacle.

Romo has the incredible matchup against a seriously beat up Seattle secondary, but Holmgren is no idiot. He will come up with an effective plan to protect his secondary and limit the amount of time they will be exposed (pressure). Romo is young and has been shaky recently. I think Seattle D will add to the shakiness. Hasselbeck is proven, and he's got SA healthy again. the Dallas safeties are horrible and Hass will find a way to expose them. Hass has the better game, but I need him to be the underdog before I play it.

Garcia has been on fire (116/199 for 1309 yards, 10 TDs and 2 interceptions this season) and has a great matchup against a struggling Giant team. NY has only had 32 sacks and has given up 21 TD passes. Philly is very balanced and has weapons in all areas. They will put up a lot of points. Big Game Brady has a very tough matchup, since their bye, the Jets have given up only 12 pts a game. The Pats will do most of their damage on the ground. Obviously, its important and NE's backs are much stronger than their receivers. Garcia covers this one easily, I'd like to see him at +100.

TO has a great matchup, with the injured Seahawks. See the Romo analysis. I think Seattle pressures Romo, but TO will still get his catches and probably a TD. Marvin could have a tougher day. Larry Johnson will get 35+ carries, which will limit the number of plays for the Indy offense. I always like Harrison, but TO at +110 or better is a good play this week.

Reggie Wayne faces the so-so KC pass defense and will split targets with Marvin, but he still has a good day . Plax will be the only target for Eli, but the Giants may not even be competitive. I don't see the odds moving too much and I can't take Plax, so i will pass unless something weird happens with the line.

Westy gets to run wild against a hurting Giant D and Tiki has a tough road vs the hot Philly D. Tiki loses a lot of redzone touches which projects Westy a lot higher than Tiki. Tiki averaged about 1oo yrds total offense against the Eagles this year with 1 TD. Westy averaged about 120 with 3 TDs. I like Westy if the odds work out.

Football Betting Tips

2007-01-03T10:43:00.000-08:00

The Inside Wagering Line from Pinnacle Sports Book by Simon Noble

Measuring the Accuracy of Pinnacle's Sharp Plays

Since the first issue of the Pinnacle Pulse, we've focused a lot of attention on the methods and selections of 'sharp' players. Each week we highlight the markets where they are most active. At Pinnacle Sportsbook we consider a 'sharp player' to be a client that is consistently on the right side of a game, gets the best of the number and consequently wins over the long-term.

Therefore it is reasonable for bettors to ask how accurate these 'sharp plays' have been, but before going back and checking, bear in mind two bits of advice we have repeatedly stressed: 1) always play at the best price and 2) pass on a game if sharps have conflicting opinions at the same price. With these two rules in mind, you would have gone a whopping 47-31-2 following sharp plays since we began listing them last year.

Handicapping sports is a search for the truth. That truth is the chance of a given team winning on a given day. Professional players typically set their own line before looking at the market prices, and know what edge they expect at any given price. They view investing in a game as a simple commodity - they will buy either team if the price is right. In many instances, bettors will play both sides of the same game due to line moves or new information.

Many handicappers set their original line, and use an ROR (return on risk) hurdle to determine plays. For example, if a model predicts that Team A will beat Team B 75% of the time in a match-up, that player might look for a bet priced for Team A to win just 70% of the time, or Team B to win 20% of the time. Once that piece of truth is found - Team A's win percentage for that match-up - the sharp player bets it only if 'the price is right'. This might be by playing Team A at -233 on the moneyline, or making an 'equivalent' play identified with conversions, such as Team A -5.5. That same player would just as happily play Team B at +400 or +8 points.

In most games the market price will be close enough to the handicapper's fair price to suggest that the game is a 'pass'. Due to the commission a bettor must pay on each wager (traditionally 10% at most sports books), there's a dead zone where neither side can be played profitably. For example, a sportsbook might offer both sides of an NFL game at Pick'em -110. In that instance, no play could be profitably made unless a team was expected to win more than (110/210) = 52.4%. With traditional 20 cent lines, there is a fairly wide dead zone at most other bookmakers.

There are two obvious ways to reduce the impact of the dead zone. The simplest is to open an account with a reduced-juice sportsbook like Pinnacle Sports Betting. With Pinnacle's -104 style pricing on NFL sides, the dead zone is much smaller and a team expected to win just 51% could be profitable. Pinnacle Sports' reduced juice not only provides more favorable prices, with 8 cent lines on NFL sides, but gives bettors more possible plays as well.

The second way to reduce the dead zone further is to use multiple sportsbooks and shop lines. If you have an array of five plus sportsbooks, which includes a reduced juice sports book like Pinnacle Sports, you can frequently reduce the dead zone further - in some instances eliminating it entirely (e.g. if you can play either side at +100). When professional players count their profits in terms of 2-4% of their total betting volume, shopping to get the best number will frequently make the difference between a winning or losing season.

Modern Caveman recently contacted AskTheBook and asked:
Should a bettor really be taking advice from a bookie? In chess, I used to say 'never listen to your opponent.'

My advice would be, 'Trust, but verify'. In sports betting, like stock investing, you should never put money at risk on the strength of anything ANYONE says until you've researched the subject to the best of your abilities. This is especially true if your source has a vested interest.

The aim of The Pinnacle Pulse is to help educate players about the benefits of low juice by providing accurate information that helps improve the handicapping skills of prospective and existing Pinnacle Sports players. This is thanks in no small part to contributors such as Daringly and the Pinnacle Sports oddsmakers and line managers. It is our belief that if we can improve the sophistication of players and raise the awareness of Pinnacle Sports, more bettors will chose Pinnacle and benefit from our pricing that offers up to 60% better value on NFL sides than other bookmakers.

What are our players betting?

Dallas +3 -112 v. Seattle

Both teams finished the regular seasons below expectations - Seattle as reigning NFC champion and Dallas as an early Super Bowl favorite. Both lost three out of their final four games, landing Seattle and Dallas the #4 and #5 seeds, respectively.

The Cowboys opened at +3 (-114). The public leaned on Seattle by a ratio of 3-to-2, due at least in part to Dallas's recent humiliation at the hands of the hapless Lions. Meanwhile, the sharps clearly favor Dallas and have been taking the points.

New York Giants +7 -103 v. Philadelphia

The Eagles have finished the season playing inspired football winning their last five games. Jeff Garcia led the Eagles offense after stepping in for injured Donovan McNabb, throwing 10 TDs to just 2 INTs. His 95.8 passer rating would make him the #4 QB in the league. The Giants started at 6-2, but then dropped six of their last eight games to limp into the playoffs.

When you have two teams moving in opposing directions, statistical handicappers will often disagree on a game. One approach is to weight all games of the season evenly. Another approach is to weight recent games more heavily than ones earlier in the season. Each of these styles will strongly favor opposite teams in this match-up.

In our most heavily traded game of the week, we opened the Giants at +6 (-106). The line crept up as bettors took the Eagles by a 3-to-2 ratio. Our professional players are split on this match-up, possibly due to their statistical methodology. We are also seeing one-sided sharp action teasing the Eagles down.

Florida +7 -105 v. Ohio State

Florida will try to maintain a trend seen in the last four National Championships: the underdog winning outright. Another trend that has extended even further is based on defense. In National Championship games, the team whose defense allows fewer yards per game has won the last five. In this match-up, this also favors Florida, which allows 269 yards per game versus 273 yards per game for Ohio State.

We opened the Buckeyes at -7 (-105) and the public has favored Ohio State, backing them over Florida by a margin of 3-to-2. Our sharps have been split fairly evenly on this game, though we have seen some unusual point-buying activity with some of our more successful players buying Florida up to +7.5.

Week 17 Fantasy Matchup Results

2007-01-02T14:19:00.000-08:00

Loss: Rudi J(2 pts) +117 over Gore(10 pts)
Win: Peyton(25 pts) +104 over Romo(18 pts)
Loss: Marvin Harrison(10 pts) +104 over TO(12 pts)
Loss: VY(24 pts) +200 over Vick(43 pts), Kitna(161 pts), Rivers(61 pt)

What did I learn this week? Peyton is always a good underdog, no big secret. Any QB is going to struggle against the Patriots. TO sucks!

UFC 66 Breakdown

2007-01-01T21:08:00.000-08:00

Here's my opinions on the UFC aftermath.

From a gambling perspective, its important to stay on top of these guys. The odds makers can be way off when the lines open and you can find some great plays if you know the fighters.

Liddell TKOs Tito in Rd 3 - Chuck never looked threatened during the fight. Tito was tentative, afraid to lay it on the line. Liddell can maintain this style for a while, as long as his opponents are inferior. It's going to take a dynamic, hungry fighter to knock him off. Tito did not look like he had the desire to take enough chances to get back to the top. Maybe he has gotten too comfortable. Tito is vulnerable.

Jardine TKO over Griffin at the end of round 1. Forest was winning the fight but his style will always leave him open to these kind of things. I thought he played it safe and it backfired. He's successful with the balls to wall, "I don't give a shit" style. I like Forest as the underdog, but he's hard to play as a favorite. Jardine impressed me with the win, I underestimated his ability. I still don't think he is a top echelon talent though and he will be in for trouble as he continues to fight tough opponents.

Arlovski TKOs Cruz in the first round. I stand my opinion that Arlovski is overrated. Cruz was giving AA some real problems and Arlovski could do nothing but defend submission attempts. He was fortunate the ref stopped the action, then pulled a chicken shit move and landed a big punch on the break. He has no answers when the fight is not going his way. Cruz is nothing impressive, he is soft and out of shape. He can probably handle lesser opponents, especially if they are aggressive.

Jason MacDonald submits Leben in the 2nd round. MacDonald is a dangerous guy, I don't like him against the top guys. He still needs to improve to compete at the true contender level. Leben talks a lot, I like his attitude and he seems to take MMA serious. Why can't he get himself in shape? He got tired early in round 2 and it was over. I can't see him handling any smart, skilled opponents until he changes some things. He is fun to watch though.

Bisping 1st Round TKO over Schafer. The two worst nicknames ever? The Count vs Ravishing Red. WTF? I was very disappointed in Bisping. He should have rolled right thru Schafer, but got himself in some tough spots at times, a solid fighter would have put him away. I will give him a break for some rustiness, but he is not ready for prime time yet. Schafer is useful within his realm, he showed some skills.

Alves over DeSouza by TKO in the 2nd. Solid win by Alves. DeSouza was outmatched and looked a little too old for the Pitbull. Hard to learn a lot about Alves, except that he is certainly a good fighter.

Gonzaga 1st round submission of Marrero. This win will inflate Gonzagas value next time out. Marrero is inexperienced and had no idea what to do against Gonzaga. I was not impressed with Gonzaga's win and hope he is favored against a tough fighter next time out.

Week 17 Recap and UFC 66 Recap

2007-01-01T10:15:00.000-08:00

Still catching up on lots of holiday/family stuff. I will update later this afternoon. How about the Colts against the Chiefs this weekend. LJ will get 40 carries I bet. I can't believe the Broncs lost and then D Williams, wow. RIP man.

Week 17 Fantasy Matchup Udate

2006-12-30T09:07:00.000-08:00

Not much changed yesterday. The only move I liked was SJax is up to +110 over Willie Parker, if it gets higher later today I will take it. Full Week 17 Matchups and analysis. What a busy weekend. NFL season ending, fantasy playoffs and UFC 66 (good new MMA site here)-dude, my heads spinning with all the action.

Here is what I've done so far.

BET: Rudi Johnson +117 over Gore
BET: Peyton +104 over Romo
BET: Marvin Harrison +104 over TO
BET: Vince Young +200 over Vick, Kitna, and Rivers

Week 17 Fantasy Matchup Udate

2006-12-29T09:38:00.000-08:00

Some lines moved in our favor others went the other way. Rudi Johnson went to +117, I will take that. Westy went to +109, I'm going to wait a little longer on him. Current odds at Pinnacle.

Full Pinnacle Week 17 Fantasy Matchup Analysis.

BetUS has posted some interesting matchups including another with Vince Young!

Jon Kitna +400

Michael Vick +140

Philip Rivers +280

Vince Young +200

Scoring System: 25 pts every 5 passing yards; 25 pts every touchdown; 1 pt every rushing yard; -25 pts every interception; -5 every sack

The scoring completely favors a running QB. 75 yards rushing and 150 yards passing with 1 TD either way is equivalent to 400 yard, 2 TD game for the passer. This time we have Vick against VY, a little tougher matchup. VY gets a home game against he Pats who will be resting players. Vick's got to go on the road and play Philly, who's motivated and rolling strong. I think Vince has a better game and get him at +200, I'll take it.

Anquan Boldin +270

Roy Williams +240

Lee Evans +210

Terrell Owens +200

Scoring System: 1 pt every 5 receiving yards; 1 pt every 5 rushing yards; 25 pts every touchdown; -25 pts every fumble (lost or not lost)

TO projects out much higher than the other 3. He gets the most targets and leads in TDs. Roy is next, but should see Terrence Newman this week. Nobody has been throwing against Newman. I'm not going to play this, its a tossup.

UFC 66 Odds Comparison

2006-12-28T13:56:00.000-08:00

In an effort to find the best value I am monitoring 4 different betting sites to see which are providing the best odds on the fighter you wish to bet on. I am keeping an eye on Pinnacle, BetUS, Diamond and Sportsbook.com

I have posted the best prices and their locations for each fighter.

*** BetUS received 1 poor review on Sportsbook Review. BetUS.com started in 1994 and has been in operation for more than 12 years. I have had many dealings with them and never had any problems.***

Updated 12/30 at 5:30 pm

Chuck Liddell -200 Sportsbook.com
Tito Ortiz +201 Pinnacle
This one probably comes down to one or two key moments when someone gets an edge. I like the price on Tito, this is a competitive fight and better than 2-1 is right up my alley.

Forrest Griffin -271 Pinnacle
Keith Jardine +270 Diamond
Jardine has never really impressed me, but Forrest's style makes him vulnerable at times.

Michael Bisping -380 BetUS
Eric Schafer +426 Pinnacle
I don't really know much about Schafer, but Bisping seems focused and will come in ready to fight. I will leave this one alone.

Andrei Arlovski -500 BetUS
Marcio Cruz +486 Pinnacle
Arlovski can look bad at times, mostly because he's not well rounded and doesn't adjust if his style is not effective. If you can watch the weigh-in to see if Cruz looks good, he could be a decent long shot. Mainly because I think AA is overrated.

Gabriel Gonzaga -290 Sportsbook.com
Carmelo Marrero +286 Pinnacle
Lots of emotional support for both these guys.

Christian Wellisch -145 BetUS
Anthony Perosh +141 Pinnacle

Yushin Okami -400 Sportsbook.com
Rory Singer +425 Diamond
I cant imagine Dana putting a TUF guy in over his head first time out. Rory had the look of a guy that needed some good coaching. The fact that he's in with Okami tells me that he's made a jump forward since the show.

Thiago Alves -101 Pinnacle
Tony DeSouza +110 Sportsbook.com
Alves opened as nearly a 2-1 favorite and was quickly bet down to near pick em. Tells me that lots of knowledgeable MMA fans like DeSouza.

Chris Leben -156 Pinnacle
Jason MacDonald +155 Diamond
MacDonald has been the TUF slayer. Leben is well known and gets bet up, no value playing Leben. Mac has a good price and I think it gets better tomorrow.

Week 17 Fantasy Matchups

2006-12-28T07:41:00.000-08:00

Fantasy matchups are up at Pinnacle. I will post my analysis after lunch. UFC 66 info and week 16 WDIS after lunch too.

The scoring system of 1 point for every 50 passing yards, 1 point for every 20 rushing yards, 1 point for every 20 receiving yards, 6 points for every touchdown, 2 points for every 2 point conversion, -2 points for every fumble lost and -2 points for every interception will be used.

Pinnacle scoring is TD heavy. And the lines move a lot, usually between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning.

1 Tony Romo (DAL) -120
2 Peyton Manning (IND) +104
Romo has a pretty good matchup against the Lions who've given up 20 TD passes this year and have problems rushing the passer. Romo has been pretty shaky lately though. It's hard to pass up Manning at +104 at home. The Dolphins have a solid defense, but Indy will be playing for playoff position. Manning will continue his good play and I'm not waiting on this one. Manning or Romo? I want Manning at +104

3 Jeff Garcia (PHI) +102
4 Carson Palmer (CIN) -118
This is a tough one. Garcia has a good matchup against the Falcons, who are not very good at stopping the pass. Garcia and the Eagles are playing well and should put up another good game to win the division. Palmer has a little tougher matchup vs the Steelers, but more importantly, Palmer is not playing that good. He missed a lot of easy targets against Denver. I like Garcia at +102, but I' going to sit tight and see if the price gets higher.

5 Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) -108
6 Jay Cutler (DEN) -108
Big Ben has been inconsistent all year, a big game one week and a bust the next. I think that Pittsburgh will put up some points this week, but i just don't trust Ben right now. Shanny has Cutler playing pretty good now and I think they put together a solid game to clinch the playoff spot. Brandon Marshall's play improves Cutlers fantasy value, Marshall is so much more dangerous than Rod Smith. I will take Cutler if he gets above +110.

7 Marc Bulger (STL) -122
8 Michael Vick (ATL) +106
Bulger hurt me last week. I don't bet favorites and I'm not taking Mike Vick against Bulger. Bulger has a great matchup and should do heavy damage this week. Vick is not playing well and has a tough matchup against the Eagles, who are rolling.

9 Larry Johnson (KC) -114
10 Brian Westbrook (PHI) -102
Westy has a good matchup and the Falcons might quit if they get down. He is the most reliable player the Eagles have and will see lots of action in such an important game. LJ has a tough matchup against the Jags, although they are not as tough on the road. As great a LJ is, he is not scoring a bunch of TDs. I like Westy and I think the price will get better on him.

11 Ladell Betts (WAS) -108
12 Ronnie Brown (IND) -108
Betts is playings so good and the Giants have crater, especially against the running game. NO ripped them last week with 2 100 rushers. This should be another huge game for Betts. Ronnie Brown is lucky one this week that gets to face the Colts. Indy is every RBs dream. This is an even matchup. I will take Betts if he gets to +100 or better. I will pass on Brown.

13 Frank Gore (SF) -108
14 Rudi Johnson (CIN) -108
Gore could be wearing down a little and I dont think SF will kill him this week. He's been awesome all year, but I'm leaning towards Rudi. Gore has to go on the road to Denver and face an already tough D that has playoff motivation. Denver will focus on Gore primarily. Rudi gets the Steelers at home and has the benefit of a dangerous passing threat. This game could be a high scoring contest. I like Rudi and I bet he goes to +120

15 Willie Parker (PIT) -108
16 Steven Jackson (STL) -108
SJax has a brutal matchup this week, but he has been fantasy gold all year. FWP has an easier game. This one is a toss up and i would take either player if they get to +120.

17 Torry Holt (STL) -114
18 Chad Johnson (CIN) -102
Holt has a great matchup this week against the vikings. Bulger was on last week and should have another great day. Holt is the main man and should get plenty of redzone targets. I like him to have a big day. CJ will get a lot of attention from the Steelers. Cincy has lots of other weapons to choose from and that diminishes CJs fantasy value. I like Holt.

19 Terrell Owens (DAL) -120
20 Marvin Harrison (PIT) +104
Unreal, I will take Marvin anytime at +104. TO is catching some heat now in Dallas from his own players, everyone is saying he is no longer an elite WR, Romo is struggling a little. TO does get the pitiful Lions though. Marvin is a solid guy, playing great, has Manning throwing to him, is playing a meaningful home game. Hmmmm , Marvin's my guy on this one.

Week 16 Fantasy Matchup Results

2006-12-26T10:18:00.000-08:00

I hate TO. Those uniforms suck too.

Lucky with Frank Gore and unlucky on Betts. SJax took down Betts on the last play of the game, man thats tough. I completely missed on Bulger. I was right on Betts getting a lot of carries, but it did not keep Bulger off the field. Instead, it must have motivated him to throw TDs all over the place.

Eli is/was horrible. VY came through with an easy win, the scoring was stacked in his favor. I hope that prop shows up again soon.

2 wins and 3 losses for the week.

WIN: Gore (15 pts)+110 over LJ (13 pts)
WIN: VY (167 pts) +120 over Leinart (41 pts) and Cutler (46 pts)
LOSS: Betts(20 pts) +103 over SJax (24 pts)
LOSS: Eli (6 pts) +104 over Bulger (32 pts)
LOSS: Hass (0 pts) +122 over Palmer (12 pts)

WDIS results up later today. I'm pretty sure I killed some people this week.

Lots of time will be spent on UFC 66 this week. Tito and Liddell. Oh yeah!!

Line Moves

2006-12-24T09:50:00.000-08:00

Adding Hass at +122 over Palmer

Eli went to +130 vs Bulger, but I got a much lower price.

BET: Hass () +122 over Palmer

Week 16 Fantasy Matchups

2006-12-24T07:23:00.000-08:00

Here is the full Week 16 Fantasy Matchups and Analysis. The lines have not exactly moved to my liking this week, although, I could have had Betts at +116 last night but decided to wait. I will take him at +103, but I am going to wait until near game time to see if I can get a better price. I'm still watching McGahee too. I like Willis to have a big game today, but want a +100 or better price. I will take Eli at +104. This is a small change from my original Week 16 Analysis. I am thinking Bulger is not going to have a huge day due to the Rams inability to stop the Washington running attack. Eli should put up a good game in a critical situation.

BET: Betts ()+103 over SJax
BET: Eli () +104 over Bulger

Interesting Fantasy Prop

2006-12-23T20:26:00.000-08:00

I found this one at BetUs. Here is the complete Week 16 Fantasy Matchup Analysis

Vince Young +120
Matt Leinart +225
Jay Cutler +160

Scoring system:1 point for every 5 passing yards, 1 point for each rushing yards, 25 points for each touchdown, -25 points for each interception and -5points for each sack

Leinart has a great matchup this week and he projects higher than both Young or Cutler for most fantasy scoring systems. But... this scoring favors Young to the point where he almost can't be beat. VY's rushing total will be back up this week. The Titans will tell him to run more, especially to convert on third downs. If he rushes for 75 yards and throws for 150 with 1 TD either way that would be 130 pts. Leinart could would have to throw for 400 yards and and 2 TDs just to tie. I'm taking VY.

BET: Vince Young ()+120 over Leinart () and Cutler ()

Week 16 Fantasy Matchup Update

2006-12-23T10:53:00.000-08:00

The lines at Pinny haven't moved too much, so I'm still waiting to get some more favorable payouts. Week 16 Fantasy Matchup break-down.

About tonight's game. I'm taking Gore at +110. This is a good matchup for both LJ and Gore. Oakland's D is soft against the run and LJ did rip them last time for 154 yds and 2 TDs, but LJ has really slipped since that game. He's not been getting TDs despite 25 touches per game. Gore is playing great and SF will continue to use him, especially with playoff hopes. He's their best player and they will rely on that this week. Arizona is a midpack run defense that gives up an avg of 1 TD per week. Gore will have a good game.

Sat 12/23 Larry Johnson (KC) vs Frank Gore (SF)
7 Larry Johnson (KC) -126
8 Frank Gore (SF) +110

BET: Gore +110 over LJ

Fantasy Matchup Update Week 16

2006-12-22T07:57:00.000-08:00

Holy cow, they love Favre in Green Bay. That was my first viewing of an NFL Network game, no more cable babee. Not bad, my first thought is about the Green Bay fans' love of Favre. I remember when Aikman was finishing his career on some crappy teams and the Dallas fans were booing him, calling for the whoever the backup was (Randall C. was collecting checks and did not even know the plays.) It was sad to see how the fans treated him at the end. The Green Bay fans are pretty cool and it's good to see them cheering for their team.

Small changes in the line for Week 16 Fantasy Matchups. I will watch for now and see what happens, I'm guess their will be lots of movement this week. Matchup analysis here.

Week 16 Fantasy Matchups

2006-12-21T08:50:00.000-08:00

Fantasy Matchups are up at Pinnacle. Wow, they have included some of the guys on my team finally.

The scoring system of 1 point for every 50 passing yards, 1 point for every 20 rushing yards, 1 point for every 20 receiving yards, 6 points for every touchdown, 2 points for every 2 point conversion, -2 points for every fumble lost and -2 points for every interception will be used.

The scoring favors TDs heavily. I pick the player I like and only play him when he's +100 or better. These lines move a lot, so I sit patiently and wait for the opportunities.

Sat 12/23 Larry Johnson (KC) vs Frank Gore (SF)
7 Larry Johnson (KC) -116
8 Frank Gore (SF) +100
Gore looks pretty good here, I'm guessing that the line will move to +120 or more. I will wait until that happens. LJ should have a good day against Oakland, but Gore rates a little better in TD chances due to slight edge in receiving. SF needs this game and Gore is their best player, so he will get the ball a ton.

Sun 12/24 Drew Brees (NO) vs Tony Romo (DAL)
1 Drew Brees (NO) -128
2 Tony Romo (DAL) +112
Romo projects out about even with Brees (Romo is not a bad play at this price), but the Philly defense will bring the heat this week and Romo has not had to deal with a lot of pressure yet. I'm hoping that this line moves a lot and Brees becomes playable. Brees has a great matchup against the NYG, but watch the weather for windy conditions.

Sun 12/24 Marc Bulger (STL) vs Eli Manning (NYG)
3 Marc Bulger (STL) -112
4 Eli Manning (NYG) -104
Bulger and Manning both face average pass defenses this week, Bulger projects a little higher. This is a tough call. I don't trust Eli and Bulger takes on the Skins, who look like they are playing really solid right now. If one of these two gets to +120 or more i will take a shot.

Sun 12/24 Matt Hasselbeck (SEA) vs Carson Palmer (CIN)
5 Matt Hasselbeck (SEA) +104
6 Carson Palmer (CIN) -120
Hasselbeck has a decent advantage in this one and I like him at +104. He will get more opportunities to throw TDs, the weather will be much better, he will be at home, and he is healthy. Palmer has a tough row to how against the Broncs and he sure looked injured last Monday. Denver has only allowed 10 TD passes all year.

Sun 12/24 Steven Jackson (STL) vs Ladell Betts (WAS)
9 Steven Jackson (STL) -140
10 Ladell Betts (WAS) +124
Betts, Betts, Betts! Ladell gets the call against a horrible Rams rush defense. Betts projects higher in TDs than Jackson and could be favored. SJAX has the big name but Betts has been a fantasy stud since Portis went down. The Skins are still playing hard and have only given up 5 rushing TDs thia year. SJAX is one of my favorites and did some damage for me last week, but Betts is the man this week.

Sun 12/24 Brian Westbrook (PHI) vs Willis McGahee (BUF)
11 Brian Westbrook (PHI) -126
12 Willis McGahee (BUF) +110
McGahee projects higher and he's at +110, I think he will go higher too. Westy has always done well against the Cows, but Willis gets the soft Titan defense this week at home. Both backs have good games. I see a 150 yard day with 2 TDs possible for McGahee.

Sun 12/24 Torry Holt (STL) vs Terrell Owens (DAL)
13 Torry Holt (STL) -108
14 Terrell Owens (DAL) -108
TO ranks a small advantage over Holt. Both are at home. Very tough to choose one at even up. If either gets to +120 or more its a play.

Sun 12/24 Plaxico Burress (NYG) vs Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
15 Plaxico Burress (NYG) -124
16 Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) +108
Plaxico rates a touch higher on TDs. Fitzgerald has a great matchup against SF and Leinart will be chucking it around a bunch. Plax has a tougher matchup but he's dangerous against NO in what could be a shootout. If Fitz gets to +120 I would like that more.

Sun 12/24 Laveranues Coles (NYJ) vs Anquan Boldin (ARI)
17 Laveranues Coles (NYJ) -119
18 Anquan Boldin (ARI) +103
Boldin rates higher than Coles and Coles is dinged up a little. Both guys have been solid all year. Boldin has a great matchup this week vs the 9ers and Coles gets a tough Miami D. I like Boldin at +103 and higher.

Week 15 Fantasy Matchup Results

2006-12-19T12:53:00.000-08:00

WIN: Kitna(0 pts) +110 over Favre (-2 pts)
WIN: S Jackson(18 pts) +130 over Rudi Johnson(12 pts)
LOSS: Ahman Green(6 pts) +110 over Willie Parker(13 pts)

The first half of last nights game was making SJAX look a little shaky, but justice prevailed.

Week 15 WDIS Results:

MBIII over Moss HIT
Betts over A Green HIT
Garcia over Vick HIT
Pennington over Cutler HIT
Kitna over McNair MISS
Coles over Dev Henderson, C Henry and Reggie Brown HIT
C Henry over Dev Henderson, Reggie Brown MISS
Addai over Booker and Glenn MISS
Betts and Westy over Addai and Benson HIT
Driver over Coles MISS
Brady over Hass HIT
VY and Rivers over Romo and McNair MISS
A Green and McGahee over Edge PUSH

Hits 7 53%
Misses 5 38%
Push 1 7%

Fantasy Football Matchup Results Week 15

2006-12-18T07:55:00.000-08:00

So far, so good. It will be a good week if SJax can hold off Rudi tonite. I got a big win in with Kitna over Favre, Kitna threw for 135 yds, 0 TDs and 2 Ints and that counts as a win. I'll take it.

Week 15 Fantasy Matchups

2006-12-17T09:33:00.000-08:00

3 plays today.

BET: Kitna +110 over Farve
BET: S Jackson +130 over Rudi Johnson
BET: Ahman Green +110 over Willie Parker

Week 15 Fantasy Matchups

2006-12-14T08:45:00.000-08:00

Fantasy Matchups at Pinnacle.

The scoring system of 1 point for every 50 passing yards, 1 point for every 20 rushing yards, 1 point for every 20 receiving yards, 6 points for every touchdown, 2 points for every 2 point conversion, -2 points for every fumble lost and -2 points for every interception will be used.

Pinnacle scoring is heavily weighted in favor of TDs. I pick the player I like and only play him when he's +100 or better. These lines move a lot, so I sit patiently and wait for the opportunities.

Sat 12/16 Tony Romo (DAL) vs. Tom Brady (NE)
05:00 PM 1 Tony Romo (DAL) +100
2 Tom Brady (NE) -116
This matchup is fairly even, Romo projects out a little higher. Brady has Houston at home, this is a great matchup and the Pats should light it up. Romo is on the road against the Falcons whose pass defensive is nothing great. IMO Romo is headed for a meltdown and this is a good spot for it. I like Brady and will watch to see if he moves to +100 or better.

Sun 12/17 Brett Farve (GB) vs. Jon Kitna (DET)
10:00 AM 5 Brett Farve (GB) -126
6 Jon Kitna (DET) +110
Kitna and Farve are actually playing each other this week. Kitna is projected to have a better fantasy game. Green Bay will be able to run against the Lions and that should steal some of Favre's TD opportunities. The Lions have no running game and Kitna will be chucking it around all day. Should be a good day for Kitna and an easy win if he can avoid throwing more than 3 INTs.

Sun 12/17 Jeff Garcia (PHI) vs. Phillip Rivers (SD)
01:15 PM 7 Jeff Garcia (PHI) -120
8 Phillip Rivers (SD) +104
Phillip Rivers is a solid play at +104 right now. He is about equal in TD opportunities and his chances of INTs is significantly lower. There is also a chance of the dreaded "swirling winds" at the Meadowlands for Garcia. Garcia will put up more yardage but this scoring is not favorable to yardage.

Sun 12/17 LaDanian Tomlinson (SD) vs. Larry Johnson (KC)
05:15 PM 9 LaDanian Tomlinson (SD) -169
10 Larry Johnson (KC) +151
Its hard to believe LJ is +151. It's hard to go against LT, but if LJ goes to +175 I will be on him.

Sun 12/17 Rudi Johnson (CIN) vs. Steven Jackson (STL)
01:15 PM 11 Rudi Johnson (CIN) -124
12 Steven Jackson (STL) +108
This one is really a toss up. I like SJax. Rudi should get plenty of chances to stick it in the endzone, right? Something tells me that Dungy gets his team turned around this week and stops the crazyness. Even if I'm wrong, SJax is a good play. The Raiders are done.

Sun 12/17 Willie Parker (PIT) vs. Ahman Green (GB)
10:00 AM 13 Willie Parker (PIT) -130
14 Ahman Green (GB) +114
I'm loving me some Ahman Green at +114. Green will tear up the Lions, they suck. Lots of yards and TD chances. The Lions have given up 14 rushing TDs and have a soft front 4. Fast Willie Parker has a tough week ahead at Carolina, whose run D has only given up 6 rushing TDs this season.

Sun 12/17 Torry Holt (STL) vs. Roy Williams (DET)
10:00 AM 17 Torry Holt (STL) -130
18 Roy Williams (DET) +114
I'm also loving me some Roy Williams at +114. Roy has a significant edge in the TD projections this week, going against a weak GB pass defense. That game should be a shootout and Williams will have a big game. Torry Holt travels to Oakland who has shut down all passing games at home this year. Holt is a strong fantasy player but he will have as many opportunities as Roy Williams this week.

Sun 12/17 Donte Stallworth (PHI) vs. Laveranues Coles (NYJ)
10:00 AM 19 Donte Stallworth (PHI) -108
20 Laveranues Coles (NYJ) -108
Toss up. Both project evenly. Watch for poor weather for Stallworth. You could make a case for either player.

Mon 12/18 Peyton Manning (IND) vs. Carson Palmer (CIN)
05:35 PM 3 Peyton Manning (IND) -112
4 Carson Palmer (CIN) -104
Palmer has the better WRs and Manning has the homefield. What a shoot out this one should be. It should be even and I would lean toward Palmer right now. The Bengals are rolling. But... I also think that Indy gets it turned around here and now.

Mon 12/18 Reggie Wayne (IND) vs. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (CIN)
05:35 PM 15 Reggie Wayne (IND) -108
16 T.J. Houshmandzadeh (CIN) -108
Reggie is the number 1 guy at Indy and Housh is #2 in Cincy. Got to like Reggie if he goes above +100.

Group Matchups at BetUS
Scoring system: 25 pts for each TD (pass,rush,rec); 1 pt for every 5 rushing yard; 1 pt for every 5 passing yard; 1 pt for every 5 receiving yards; -25 pts for every INT; -25 pts per fumble (lost/not lost)

This is a fairly balanced scoring system, turnovers will kill you though. I like the the player groups because i feel that luck plays a smaller role with 3 guys. Like always, I will only play at +100 or better.

D.Brees (NO), B,Westbrook (PHI), R.Wayne (IND) -160
T.Brady (NE), T.Barber (NYG), S.Smith (CAR) +120
The Brees team is a little stronger according to the projected numbers. It's a small advantage, but Stevie Wonder has not been tearing it up and the Brady team would have to go to +200 for me to play them. I can't see the line moving the Brees team to the dogs.

T.Green, L.Johnson, T.Gonzalez +135
P.Rivers, L.Tomlinson, A.Gates -180
The Rivers team has a large advantage in projected numbers. I don't really like this one too much. If you don't mind playing a favorite this is good one. San Diego is better offensively and defensively, they are playing at home, fighting to win home field advantage, and KC is struggling. LJ will get the ball 30-35 times this week, you can play him head to head against LT for better odds if you look above.

M.Hasselbeck-SEA, S.Alexander-SEA, A.Crumpler-ATL -120
T.Romo (DAL), F.Gore (SF), T.Owens (DAL) -120
Hasselbeck has torn up the 49ers and S Alexander should be hitting his stride, Crumpler will get his chances against a shitty Dallas secondary. Romo's team projects higher, but I think Romo and Dallas crumble before the season is over. I am sticking to that and playing against the Romo if the number gets to +100 or better.

P.Manning, J.Addai, D.Rhodes, M.Harrison -120
C.Palmer, R.Johnson, TJ Houshmandzadeh, C.Johnson -120
This is a fun one. I like the Colts to win this game but this matchup favors the Bengal team. You get all the Cincy offense and you're not getting the best Indy WR. This is a no brainer , a big advantage to the Bengal team.

Michael Vick (ATL) +110
Eli Manning (NYG) +250
Rex Grossman (CHI) +450
Vince Young (TEN) +180
Grossman at +450 is a good gamble here. Maybe Grossman got it turned around, maybe not. Tampa is pretty bad and Grossman could get 3 TDs and have a shot of cashing a big check for us. The scoring is not great for the running QBs. Eli is not a bad play.

Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) +200
Torry Holt (STL) +180
Plaxico Burress (NYG) +220
Roy Williams (DET) +200
This is a tough group, at the current odds, none are great bets. I think Roy has the best matchup. GB and Detroit should light it up and Roy will have a big day.

[Fantasy Football]

WDIS Results from Week 14

2006-12-11T19:39:00.000-08:00

Week 14 results of WDIS answers. I post as digdug at Footballguys.com and wrongheaded at thehuddle.com

Norwood over Mewelde Moore, Ciatrick Fason and Fargas Push
Fred Taylor and Deuce over Morris, Houston, Benson, Fargas and D Williams Hit
Tenn d over Atl, Jets, Oakland Miss
Jones Drew over MJones and I Bruce Hit
MJD over C Houston Hit
C Houston over KJ Miss
SJax and MJD over Henry and McGahee Push
Hass over Penny Hit
MBIII and Cotchery over Berrian Miss
Branch over Galloway, M Moore and Fargas Push
MBIII and MJD over TBell, KJ, DeAngelo Hit
McGahee over TBell Hit
Coles over Furrey Hit
Holt and Coles over Jennings and Housh Coles over Copper Hit
Benson over Maroney, MBell and SMorris Miss
ASmith over Gradkowski, Grossman and Cutler Miss
Cotchery over Edwards, Berrian, Walker Miss
Big Ben over Gradkowski, Bulger, Harrington, Anderson, Cutler Miss
Betts over TJones, Caddy and MBIII Hit
Betts, BarberIII, TJones over Julius Jones Push
Hass over Romo Hit
Manning over Romo Hit
Brady over Garcia Miss
Dillon over KJ Miss
Tiki over Tatum Push
San Diego over Seattle Hit
Cincy over Seattle Hit
TBell over Dunn, Norwood Addai Hit
Holt over Harrison Hit
Bell over DeAngelo and Morris Miss
Djax and CJ over Roy Williams Hit
Deuce and Taylor over A Thomas Hit
MJD over Matt Jones and Isacc Bruce, DeAngelo Hit
Addai over Edge, Dunn Miss
Farve over Green Hit
Bush over MJD Miss
Garcia over Delhomme, Kitna, Harrington, Bulger Miss
Boldin and AJ over Dev Henderson Miss
McGahee over Addai, Holt Miss
Cotchery and Branch over JWalker (TD only) Push
Duece over KJ Hit
Chris Henry over Booker and Matt Jones Miss
TBell over KJ, Norwood Push
Cooley over Winslow Hit
Farve over Eli Hit
Taylor and MJD over DeAngelo Hit
Benson and Houston over Fason Hit
Cotchery over Berrian Miss
Holmes over Booker and Caldwell Miss
Vince Young over Big Ben, Carr, Green, McNair and Smith Hit
Baltimore D over Cincy Hit
Taylor and Houston over Droughns and Morris Push
Betts over KJ Hit
Garrard over Green, Johnson and Bulger Miss
Henry and Benson over KJ and TJones HitDuece over Droughns Hit
Gore over Alexander Hit
Holmes over R Moss Hit
MJD over TJones Hit
McGahee over KJ Hit

Week 14 WDIS Totals:

Hits 33 55%
Misses 19 32%
Pushes 8 13%

Bulger and Sammy Morris were my big misses this week.
MJD and Betts were my big hits.

Week 14 Fantasy Matchup Results

2006-12-11T07:30:00.000-08:00

Drew Brees came through and secured two wins this week. TO's TD was absolutely disgusting. 4th down, double coverage and Romo throws it directly to the CB. He could have a.) intercepted it or b.) knocked it down, but instead he tips it right to TO. Oh well. It was kind of funny when TO scored you could see he was dying to celebrate, it almost came out, but they were getting beat so bad he struggled to hold it back.

Romo's luck continued. He ended up with a decent Fantasy performance, but my gosh, he should have had at least two more INT's one which resulted the TD to TO. Last week against the Giants he throw a pass that somehow Gibril Wilson let go through his hands, it was a sure TD and would have won that game for the Giants. How do you like Romo now? Against Indy he threw a ball that was intercepted by Antione Bethea in the endzone that would have secured that game for the Colts, but interference was called on another player that did not effect the INT. That would be two more losses directly on Romo. I think he folds before the end of the season.

LOSS: Vick +105(1 pt) over Palmer(12 pts)
WIN: Hasselbeck(23 pts) +104 over Manning(10 pts)
LOSS: Young +114(12 pts) over Leinart(15 pts)
PUSH: DJax (9 pts) +108 over TO (9 pts)
WIN: Brees (38 pts)+119 over Romo(9 pts)
WIN: D.Brees (NO), S.Alexander (SEA), A.Johnson (HOU) (200 pts)+120 over P.Manning (IND), F.Gore (SF), M.Harrison (IND) (115 pts)-160

Week 14 WDIS Results coming up later

Fantasy Matchup Update Week 14

2006-12-10T08:51:00.000-08:00

The lines have moved a bunch since last night. Check out the lines on individual matchups here.

I am adding Brees at +119 over Romo.

Brees should bave a good day even missing his favorite wideouts. The Dallas D is not real good at pressuring the QB and Brees will light it up against them.

I like all my previous picks even more and may add a little to them.

BET: Brees +119 over Romo

Week 14 Fantasy Football Matchups

2006-12-09T11:46:00.000-08:00

Fantasy matchup betting update.

Here's the openning line and brief analysis of the Fantasy matchups offered at Pinnacle.

Here's the openning line and analysis of the matchups at BetUs.

Current Odds at Pinnacle

The scoring system of 1 point for every 50 passing yards, 1 point for every 20 rushing yards, 1 point for every 20 receiving yards, 6 points for every touchdown, 2 points for every 2 point conversion, -2 points for every fumble lost and -2 points for every interception will be used.

Sun 12/10 Drew Brees (NO) vs Tony Romo (DAL)
10:00 AM 1 Drew Brees (NO) +100
2 Tony Romo (DAL) -116
I like Brees as an underdog, but i like other matchups better right now.

Sun 12/10 Carson Palmer (CIN) vs Michael Vick (ATL)
10:00 AM 3 Carson Palmer (CIN) -121
4 Michael Vick (ATL) +105
I still like Vick and will play him at this price.

Sun 12/10 Peyton Manning (IND) vs Matt Hasselbeck (SEA)
10:00 AM 5 Peyton Manning (IND) -120
6 Matt Hasselbeck (SEA) +104
I like Hass and now at +104 I'm taking him.

Sun 12/10 Jeff Garcia (PHI) vs Rex Grossman (CHI)
10:00 AM 7 Jeff Garcia (PHI) -133
8 Rex Grossman (CHI) +117
I like Garcia, but not at this price.

Sun 12/10 Vince Young (TEN) vs Matt Leinart (ARI)
10:00 AM 9 Vince Young (TEN) +114
10 Matt Leinart (ARI) -130
I'm all over VY at +114. This will be a big game for Vince in his hometown.

Sun 12/10 Maurice Jones - Drew (JAC) vs Joseph Addai (IND)
10:00 AM 11 Maurice Jones - Drew (JAC) -139
12 Joseph Addai (IND) +123
I think Jones-Drew will have a better game, but Addai +123 is tempting.

Sun 12/10 Shaun Alexander (SEA) vs Frank Gore (SF)
10:00 AM 13 Shaun Alexander (SEA) -110
14 Frank Gore (SF) -106
If Gore gets to +104 i will play him.

Sun 12/10 Rudi Johnson (CIN) vs Thomas Jones (CHI)
10:00 AM 15 Rudi Johnson (CIN) -126
16 Thomas Jones (CHI) +110
No clue here.

Sun 12/10 Terrell Owens (DAL) vs Darrel Jackson (SEA)
10:00 AM 17 Terrell Owens (DAL) -124
18 Darrel Jackson (SEA) +108
I'm taking DJax and hope I get to see a classic TO dropfest.

Sun 12/10 Joey Galloway (TB) vs Donal Driver (GB)
10:00 AM 19 Joey Galloway (TB) -102
20 Donal Driver (GB) -114
Driver should do well.

Sun 12/10 Todd Heap (BAL) vs Jeremy Shockey (NYG)
10:00 AM 21 Todd Heap (BAL) -125
22 Jeremy Shockey (NYG) +109
Not for me.

BET: Vick +105 over Palmer
BET: Hasselbeck +104 over Manning
BET: Young +114 over Leinart
BET: DJax +108 over TO

The current odds at BetUS remain the same.

BET: D.Brees (NO), S.Alexander (SEA), A.Johnson (HOU)+120 over P.Manning (IND), F.Gore (SF), M.Harrison (IND)-160

Week 14 Fantasy Football Matchups

2006-12-08T06:40:00.000-08:00

Results from last night.

Santanio Holmes (4-81 yds) +9.5 yds over Kellen Winslow (4-19 yds) -9.5 yds Win

Fantasy Player Matchups at Pinny.

The scoring system of 1 point for every 50 passing yards, 1 point for every 20 rushing yards, 1 point for every 20 receiving yards, 6 points for every touchdown, 2 points for every 2 point conversion, -2 points for every fumble lost and -2 points for every interception will be used.

Pinny's scoring favors TD's heavily. I evaluate the matchups and then place a bet with only 1 condition. The player I like is +100 or better. These lines change quite a bit.

Sun 12/10 Drew Brees (NO) vs Tony Romo (DAL)
10:00 AM 1 Drew Brees (NO) -109
2 Tony Romo (DAL) -107
Romo has a slight edge over Brees on paper. I think Romo has been very lucky and it catches him soon, this week is possible.

Sun 12/10 Carson Palmer (CIN) vs Michael Vick (ATL)
10:00 AM 3 Carson Palmer (CIN) -130
4 Michael Vick (ATL) +114
Vick and Palmer are about even too, but teams have really struggled with the Raiders pass defense. I like Vick at +114

Sun 12/10 Peyton Manning (IND) vs Matt Hasselbeck (SEA)
10:00 AM 5 Peyton Manning (IND) -113
6 Matt Hasselbeck (SEA) -103
Peyton vs Hass, another even matchup. I think the edge goes to Hass, the Jags D is so tough at home.

Sun 12/10 Jeff Garcia (PHI) vs Rex Grossman (CHI)
10:00 AM 7 Jeff Garcia (PHI) -124
8 Rex Grossman (CHI) +108
Garcia projects much higher than Grossman, i like underdogs, but not this one.

Sun 12/10 Vince Young (TEN) vs Matt Leinart (ARI)
10:00 AM 9 Vince Young (TEN) -120
10 Matt Leinart (ARI) +104
Leinart looks a little better than VY on paper, but I think Vince has a huge day against Houston. Leinart could have a good day if Seattle gets a big lead, but I don't think that is likely. Watch if VY becomes +100 or better.

Sun 12/10 Maurice Jones - Drew (JAC) vs Joseph Addai (IND)
10:00 AM 11 Maurice Jones - Drew (JAC) -116
12 Joseph Addai (IND) +100
Jones Drew will take apart the Indy Defense and Addai struggles Sunday.

Sun 12/10 Shaun Alexander (SEA) vs Frank Gore (SF)
10:00 AM 13 Shaun Alexander (SEA) -114
14 Frank Gore (SF) -102
Frank Gore get a solid edge over S Alexander. Gore has a big day against the Pack.

Sun 12/10 Rudi Johnson (CIN) vs Thomas Jones (CHI)
10:00 AM 15 Rudi Johnson (CIN) -127
16 Thomas Jones (CHI) +111
I like Rudi Johnson, he should get lots of action against Oak. TJones is losing carries to Benson and that continues this week. I like Rudi if the odds move his way.

Sun 12/10 Terrell Owens (DAL) vs Darrel Jackson (SEA)
10:00 AM 17 Terrell Owens (DAL) -128
18 Darrel Jackson (SEA) +112
TO and Djax is a toss up. I like Djax at +112. Romo's implosion started last week and hits full wreck status soon.

Sun 12/10 Joey Galloway (TB) vs Donal Driver (GB)
10:00 AM 19 Joey Galloway (TB) -105
20 Donal Driver (GB) -111
I love Driver if the odds move on him. He's been solid all year and Galloway is caught up in the Buc's trainwreck.

Sun 12/10 Todd Heap (BAL) vs Jeremy Shockey (NYG)
10:00 AM 21 Todd Heap (BAL) -112
22 Jeremy Shockey (NYG) -104
Heap and Shockey- i hate TEs. I guess the edge goes to Heap.

Fantasy Football Matchups

2006-12-07T13:18:00.000-08:00

Fantasy Matchups at BetUS are up.

Week 14 - Group 4
P.Manning (IND), F.Gore (SF), M.Harrison (IND)-160
D.Brees (NO), S.Alexander (SEA), A.Johnson (HOU)+120

Scoring system: 25 pts for each TD (pass,rush,rec); 1 pt for every 5 rushing yard; 1 pt for every 5 passing yard; 1 pt for every 5 receiving yards; -25 pts for every INT; -25 pts per fumble (lost/not lost)

This matchup is very even on projected numbers. With Manning and Harrison on the same team it all comes down to their performance. The Jags are very tough at home, allowing only 8 pts per game. Peyton managed only 219 against them in their first meeting and Harrison was held down too. Gore has a good matchup against the Packers and should get a lots of carries, he's a little dinged up and if SF gets a lead they could find some spots to rest him. Brees has a decent matchup with Dallas, who Tiki torched last week with short pass and runs. Bush should be even more dangerous in that role this week, Brees has a big day. Not to mention, the Dallas safeties have been vulnerable all year. Alexander is almost up to full speed and he traditionally kills the Cards. 30 carries, 100 yards and 2 TDs sounds about right. Andre Johnson should see a lot of balls come his way this week in a shootout. Tenn has problems rushing the passer, which should give Carr time to find AJ on some deep routes this week. I like the underdogs.

Week 14 - Group 3
M.Vick (ATL), L.Tomlinson (SD), M.Harrison (IND)-300
M.Hasselback (SEA), M.Barber (DAL), T.Owens (DAL)+200

Scoring system: 25 pts for each TD (pass,rush,rec); 1 pt for every 5 rushing yard; 1 pt for every 5 passing yard; 1 pt for every 5 receiving yards; -25 pts for every INT; -25 pts per fumble (lost/not lost)

Tomlinson gives this team a definite advantage on paper according to the projections. Vick is in for a big day against the Bucs. The Tampa offense is so bad, Vick should be on the field all day running and passing for big numbers. LT, what can you say? Harrison will have a tough time against the Jax- they are awesome at home, especially the D. Hass should have a decent, unspectacular day. Enough passing to get him sharp for the playoffs and lots of handing the ball to SA. I like Barber the redzone monster, but this scoring system rewards big yardage gainers and thats not III's thing right now. TO is dropping way too many passes to be reliable and the other Dallas weapons hurt his fantasy value. I like Vick's team, its obviously stronger. I don't like the odds though. Usually, i would take +200 with just about any chance, but a RB and WR from the same NFL team are unlikely to both have big days.

Week 14 - Group 2 - Ravens vs Chiefs
S.McNair, J.Lewis, D.Mason, T.Heap
+150
T.Green, L.Johnson, E.Kennison, T.Gonzalez
-200

Scoring system: 25 pts for each TD (pass,rush,rec); 1 pt for every 5 rushing yard; 1 pt for every 5 passing yard; 1 pt for every 5 receiving yards; -25 pts for every INT; -25 pts per fumble (lost/not lost)

The Ravens vs Chiefs matchup. I don't really have a feel for this one, but I love the Team match ups. They are the most fun to watch. Projections say that KC is the way to go and I would agree that they are better, but the Ravens D should limit the KC players and the KC D should help the Baltimore players. I think KC wins the NFL game .

NFL Player Props for Thur. Night Game

2006-12-07T10:29:00.000-08:00

Player prop betting line is up for tonight's game at Pinnacle.

The one I like is Santonio Holmes +9.5 yds over Kellen Winslow. I see Holmes getting lots of targets tonight. Cowher will be using the rest of the season to see what Santonio can do and if the first rounder is #1 receiver material. Winslow will be active, young/new QBs often rely on their TEs. Holmes is a good play, especially getting 9.5 yds.

Thu 12/7 Gross passing yards by all Brown QB's?
05:00 PM 467 Over 191.5 passing yards -108
468 Under 191.5 passing yards -108

Thu 12/7 Gross passing yards by Ben Roethlisberger?
05:00 PM 469 Over 226.5 passing yards +112
470 Under 226.5 passing yards -128

Thu 12/7 Total rushing yards by Reuben Droughns?:
05:00 PM 471 Over 48.5 rushing yards -112
472 Under 48.5 rushing yards -104

Thu 12/7 Total rushing yards by Willie Parker?
05:00 PM 473 Over 87.5 rushing yards -127
474 Under 87.5 rushing yards +111

Thu 12/7 Most receiving yards Edwards vs Washington?
05:00 PM 475 Braylon Edwards -0.5rec. yards -108
476 Nate Washington +0.5rec. yards -108

Thu 12/7 Most receiving yards Winslow vs Holmes?
05:00 PM 477 Kellen Winslow -9.5rec. yards -108
478 Santonio Holmes +9.5rec. yards -108

Fantasy Sleepers for Thursday night

2006-12-07T08:08:00.000-08:00

Cleveland's uniforms are awesome. Tonight's game has one obvious fantasy start by Willie Parker. Anyone else? If you are hurting at wide receiver maybe you can play Joe Jurevicius. He's a solid player thats healhy. Pittsburgh's secondary should be vulnerable to a big WR like Jurevicius. The focus of the secondary will be on Braylon Edwards, so Joe will get some good chances. If it is windy Cleveland will run short routes to the inside on 3rd conversion attempts which also helps.

Fantasy Breakout Fundamentals

2006-12-06T08:55:00.000-08:00

Break-out fantasy performances are often hard to predict. There are a few things to look for. A big game often happens when there’s a change in that player’s role. For example, a tight end or secondary wide receiver might get more looks and earn more points if a team’s top receiver is injured. DeAngelo Williams is a good example from last week. Foster was deactivated at game time and Williams got all the action, producing 1 TD, 101 receiving yards and 74 yards rushing.

Another opportunity to find breakout players may arise in mismatches. When a game goes into the second half with a dominant favorite up 14 or more points, there are usually significant changes in play selection. The favorite tends to run the ball more often, while the losing team attempts more passes. Using this theory to your advantage, you may want to activate running backs for teams that are favored by 10 points or more. Rudi Johnson against the Raiders this week is a good play according to this theory.

It’s equally important to avoid quarterbacks playing for large underdogs. Although they typically attempt more passes, they also tend to throw a disproportionate number of interceptions. You’re also likely to see a winning team using more nickel and dime defensive packages (even on first or second down), when its opponent is down a few scores in the second half. While quarterbacks of big underdogs are typically something to be avoided in fantasy, receivers and tight ends of these teams often benefit from the rout by making more pass receptions, without getting penalized for the more frequent interceptions and sacks. Avoid Aaron Brooks this week against the Bengals. Randal Williams TE against the Bengals is a good play though, he's coming on strong and should see the ball this week.

Fantasy Football WDIS Results Week 13

2006-12-05T11:05:00.000-08:00

I completely missed on Willis, at least he got a TD.

WDIS's performance for Week 13.

DeAngelo Williams over Foster hit
T Gonzalez over LJ Smith hit
Tory Holt hit
Bulger over Vick push
Vernon Davis over Witten miss
Barber III and Maroney over Dillon and Chester Taylor miss
Droughns over Cedric Houston, Leon Washington and Benson miss
McGahee over Barber III miss
Tatum Bell over Fred Taylor hit
Fred Taylor over Sammie Morris hit
Hasselback over Phillip Rivers miss
Seattle D over Tampa D hit
B Jacobs over gado or lundy, fargas, sammy morris, or norwood miss
McGahee over Kevin Jones hit
Alex and Henry over Addai and C Taylor hit
Javon over Berrian push
Driver over DJax hit
Antonia Bryant over TBell hit
Maroney over Tiki miss
Mcgahee and Henry over Sammie Morris and Dunn hit
Hasselback over Grossman hit
D Henderson over Dunn and Berrian miss
Roy Williams over Santana Moss miss
Furrey over Copper and Key hit
Harrington over Cutler hit
Mcgahee over Dillon miss
Pennington over Cutler hit
Coles over A Johnson hit
Maroney over Copper hit
Maroney over T Glenn miss
Alex Smith over Brooks and Grossman hit
Gore and FWP over Henry miss
Sammie Morris over Foster hit
Roy Williams, Evans and DJax over Galloway hit
Carolina D over Arizona D miss
McGahee over Cedric Houston miss
Coles over D Williams miss
Betts over Edge hit

Total hits 21 55%
Total misses 15 39%
Pushes 2 5%

Maroney left game in the 1st quarter.
McGahee was the biggest miss of the week.

Monday Night Overlay

2006-12-04T14:02:00.000-08:00

I have run across a decent opportunity in tonite's game.

At Pinnacle:

Smith is -33.5
Stallworth is +33.5

At Skybook:

Smith is -24.5
Stallworth +24.5

So, I'm taking Stallworth +33.5 at Pinny risking $100 and Smith -24.5 at Sky risking $100. Thats 8 yards I get to sweep em both. Stevie gains 25-33 yards more than Donte and I'm good, any thing else and its a small win or loss.

Fantasy Football Matchup Results

2006-12-04T07:08:00.000-08:00

Keep it down tonight Stevie

Aaron Brooks (1 pt) over Farve (6 pts) loss
Duece (7 pts)over Addai(4 pts) win
TO(4 pts) over Stevie Smith(9 pts) loss
Reggie Wayne(3 pts) over Tory Holt(12 pts) loss

Its all about TDs with this scoring system. If Stevie Wonder gets shut down tonight it will be a winning week.

In the Monday Night game there are 2 player props that look great. I think Pinnacle missed the number on both pretty bad.

Mon 12/4 Most receiving yards Smith vs Stallworth?
05:30 PM 3175 Steve Smith -33.5receiving yards -108
3176 Donte' Stallworth +33.5receiving yards -108

Mon 12/4 Most receiving yards Johnson vs Brown?
05:30 PM 3177 Keyshawn Johnson -11.5receiving yards -108
3178 Reggie Brown +11.5receiving yards -108

Steve Smith should beat the 33.5 number pretty easy. He gets a majority of the targets for Carolina and is always a threat for the big one. Stallworth suffers with out Donavan. Garcia can't take advantage of Stallworths speed because of his weak arm. I'm going to watch the line on this one and see if i can get a better price on Smith at gametime.

Reggie Brown is getting +11.5 against Key? It should be the other way around, Keys not a big yardage guy. Reggie is more explosive and he will get the majority of Garcia's attention. I'm taking Brown right now at this price, it's sure to go the other way before gametime.

BET: Reggie Brown +11.5 yd over Key

Fantasy Football Matchups

2006-12-03T08:38:00.000-08:00

Here are the lastest odds on todays fantasy matchups at Pinnacle.

Scoring is TD heavy and I love some of these matchups.

Aaron Brooks is a great play as the heavy underdog against Farve. Brooks projects
better for Passing TDs this week and you get a great price.

I have like Duece all along. Duece will have more/better scoring opportunities this week than Addai. Rookies have always been inconsistent, Addai is a good player but Duece gets it done today.

Willie Parker and Steve Jackson seems like a toss up to me. I like the price on Parker.

TO projects better than Stevie Wonder. TO gets lots of redzone targets in a big game today and that will take down Steve Smith.

Finally, Tory Holt is favored over Reggie Wayne. Thats insane, Holt has suffered since Pace went down and Wayne is a better play than Holt any week and should never be +111 against anyone.

Sun 12/3 Peyton Manning (IND) vs Drew Brees (NO)
10:00 AM 21 Peyton Manning -112
22 Drew Brees -104

Sun 12/3 Vince Young (TEN) vs Matt Leinart (ARI)
10:00 AM 23 Vince Young +136
24 Matt Leinart -152

Sun 12/3 Brett Favre (GB) vs Aaron Brooks (OAK)
10:00 AM 25 Brett Favre -152
26 Aaron Brooks +136

Sun 12/3 Marc Bulger (STL) vs Tony Romo (DAL)
10:00 AM 27 Marc Bulger -129
28 Tony Romo +113

Sun 12/3 Jake Delhomme (CAR) vs Alex Smith (SF)
10:00 AM 29 Jake Delhomme -117
30 Alex Smith +101

Sun 12/3 LaDanian Tomlinson (SD) vs Larry Johnson (KC)
10:00 AM 31 LaDanian Tomlinson -144
32 Larry Johnson +128

Sun 12/3 Joseph Addai (IND) vs Deuce McAllister (NO)
10:00 AM 33 Joseph Addai -143
34 Deuce McAllister +127

Sun 12/3 Steven Jackson (STL) vs Willie Parker (PIT)
10:00 AM 35 Steven Jackson -146
36 Willie Parker +130

Sun 12/3 Frank Gore (SF) vs Brian Westbrook (PHI)
10:00 AM 37 Frank Gore -137
38 Brian Westbrook +121

Sun 12/3 Steve Smith (CAR) vs Terrell Owens (DAL)
01:15 PM 39 Steve Smith -135
40 Terrell Owens +119

Sun 12/3 Javon Walker (DEN) vs Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
10:00 AM 41 Javon Walker +122
42 Larry Fitzgerald -138

Sun 12/3 Marvin Harrison (IND) vs Anquan Boldin (ARI)
10:00 AM 43 Marvin Harrison -118
44 Anquan Boldin +102

Sun 12/3 Torry Holt (STL) vs Reggie Wayne (IND)
10:00 AM 45 Torry Holt -127
46 Reggie Wayne +111

Sun 12/3 Antonio Gates (SD) vs Ben Watson (NE)
10:00 AM 47 Antonio Gates -142
48 Ben Watson +126

BET: Aaron Brooks over Farve
BET: Duece over Addai
BET: TO over Steve Smith
BET: Reggie Wayne over Holt

Fantasy Football Betting

2006-12-02T08:39:00.001-08:00

Player props are not up yet. I will check back tonite to see if I can get a head start on who looks good for tomorrow.

The fantasty matchups have not changed much at Pinnacle. The scoring system heavily favors TDs, so i look for underdogs (+100 or better) that I project to have an advantage in TDs.

Duece over Addai is a good example. i think Duece will have better opportunities to score and he has good odds currently.

Week 13 Fantasy Matchups

2006-12-01T09:14:00.000-08:00

Fantasy matchups are up. I use Pinnacle, they seem to have the best odds on this kind of betting.

The scoring system of 1 point for every 50 passing yards, 1 point for every 20 rushing yards, 1 point for every 20 receiving yards, 6 points for every touchdown, 2 points for every 2 point conversion, -2 points for every fumble lost and -2 points for every interception will be used.

Sun 12/3	Peyton Manning (IND) vs Drew Brees (NO)
10:00 AM	21 Peyton Manning	-112
	22 Drew Brees	-104
Sun 12/3	Vince Young (TEN) vs Matt Leinart (ARI)
10:00 AM	23 Vince Young	+103
	24 Matt Leinart	-119
Sun 12/3	Brett Favre (GB) vs Aaron Brooks (OAK)
10:00 AM	25 Brett Favre	-127
	26 Aaron Brooks	+111
Sun 12/3	Marc Bulger (STL) vs Tony Romo (DAL)
10:00 AM	27 Marc Bulger	-111
	28 Tony Romo	-105
Sun 12/3	Jake Delhomme (CAR) vs Alex Smith (SF)
10:00 AM	29 Jake Delhomme	-113
	30 Alex Smith	-103
Sun 12/3	LaDanian Tomlinson (SD) vs Larry Johnson (KC)
10:00 AM	31 LaDanian Tomlinson	-114
	32 Larry Johnson	-102
Sun 12/3	Joseph Addai (IND) vs Deuce McAllister (NO)
10:00 AM	33 Joseph Addai	-107
	34 Deuce McAllister	-109
Sun 12/3	Steven Jackson (STL) vs Willie Parker (PIT)
10:00 AM	35 Steven Jackson	-126
	36 Willie Parker	+110
Sun 12/3	Frank Gore (SF) vs Brian Westbrook (PHI)
10:00 AM	37 Frank Gore	-127
	38 Brian Westbrook	+111
Sun 12/3	Steve Smith (CAR) vs Terrell Owens (DAL)
01:15 PM	39 Steve Smith	-112
	40 Terrell Owens	-104
Sun 12/3	Javon Walker (DEN) vs Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
10:00 AM	41 Javon Walker	-112
	42 Larry Fitzgerald	-104
Sun 12/3	Marvin Harrison (IND) vs Anquan Boldin (ARI)
10:00 AM	43 Marvin Harrison	-114
	44 Anquan Boldin	-102
Sun 12/3	Torry Holt (STL) vs Reggie Wayne (IND)
10:00 AM	45 Torry Holt	-101
	46 Reggie Wayne	-115
Sun 12/3	Antonio Gates (SD) vs Ben Watson (NE)
10:00 AM	47 Antonio Gates	-119
	48 Ben Watson	+103

Right off the bat I like Brees over Manning, especially if the line moves to +100 or better. Indy will run the ball against the Titans, which will limit Mannings points.

TO looks pretty good over Stevie Wonder. Delhomme is really struggling, plus Philly's D is pretty good against the pass and will be sitting on Smith.

I like Fitzgerald over Javon. The Cards are starting to chuck it all around and both receivers should do well. I think Cutler will be limited to 10-15 attempts with only few downfield shots aimed at Javon, similar to Big Ben's rookie season.

That's my initial watch list. I usually hold off until i like a player and he's +100 or better.

Cinc vs Balt results

2006-12-01T07:52:00.000-08:00

CJ had 91 yards. (over 92.5) Lost
J Lewis 61 yards. (under 71.5) Win

I think the Bengals showed that they are going to hard to handle for the rest of the season. Baltimore's offense didnt look too hot, but they really didn't need this game and had a short week.

Fantasy Player matchups and discussion up later today.

Thurs night betting Cinc vs Bal

2006-11-30T07:18:00.000-08:00

I am a fantasy player so i love betting the player props. I like to check the odds early for any mistakes, in my opinion. The odds can change a bunch from the opening line until game time. I like to bet when i'm at +100 or better. Here's what i see now.

There is an 80% chance of rain tonite, so that plays a part in this.

McNair's passing total is set at 221.5. I think he goes over that easily, but the over is -116 now. no bet unless it falls.
Palmer's total is 251. Thats seems about right. Its +100 to go over.

The rushing totals for Lewis (71.5) and Rudi (75.5) dont excite me yet. I think Lewis goes under and Rudi goes over.

Chad Johnson is +110 to go over 92.5. I think he's going for 100 tonite. I'm making a small bet now and will watch the weather and any line movement.

BET: Chad Johnson over 92.5 @+110
BET: Jamal Lewis under 71.5 @+120

Fantasy Team Rebuilding

2006-11-29T15:04:00.000-08:00

I'm out of the playoffs, so its on to the rebuilding. Our league plays thru the Super Bowl, so there will be some trading going on after the end of the regular season. We keep 15 players, named 2 weeks before next season begins. Long TDs are at a premium. I took over the team mid season, because its a good league.

Tom Brady
Big Ben
Rueben Droughns
Willis McGahee
Ahman Green
Travis Henry
Laveraneus Coles
Antonio Bryant
Chris Henry
Santonio Holmes
Chad Jackson
Ryan Longwell replaces John Carney
Mario Williams
Charles Grant
AJ Hawk
Will Witherspoon
Brandon Moore
Chris Hope
Donte Whitner
Steelers D

I got 2 first round picks in next years draft.

I like my defensive squad. I am need a strong RB and WR, no shit. WRs have a lot of potential and i think 1 should come thru for next year.

NFL Rankings 11/29/06

2006-11-29T13:14:00.000-08:00

Here is my first attempt at ranking the NFL. Thanksgiving is when the real NFL season gets going. So here it is.

1. New England- Getting it all together at the right time.
2. Seattle- Quality coaching staff, healthy and rested Alexander.
3. Indy
4. Baltimore- Ray Lewis had blood drained from his back? dude, thats ridiculuous.
5. Denver- Gets is back together.
6. Cinci- Needs some defense, Thursday night will say a lot.
7. Chicago
8. Dallas- I think Romo falls apart soon.
9. San Diego- Peaked too early.
10. Minnesota
11. San Fransisco
12. NY Jets
13. Kansas City
14. New Orleans- Defense starting to catch up to them.
15. Carolina- Huge disappointment.
16. Buffalo- Coaching staff moving in a good direction.
17. Miami
18. Jacksonville
19. St Louis
20. NY Giants
21. Pittsburgh
22. Green Bay
23. Atlanta
24. Philly
25. Oaktown
26. Tennessee
27. Washington
28. Tampa
29. Houston
30. Cleveland
31. Arizona
32. Detroit

Tell me where I'm wrong. I really can't see anyone but the top 4 winning it all.

contrary cents-betting

Chicago Bears vs San Fransisco 49ers

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NFL Rankings 11/29/06

NFL Betting - Playoff Preview - Saints vs Bears
By Ringo Dalewood